The focus on 3D at last week’s Cable Show in Los Angeles was reminiscent of the mid 1990s, when high definition was the next big thing.

The entire ecosystem — set vendors, application developers, programmers, cable operators and others — want 3D to have the same happy fate as HD. Despite the superficial similarities, however, today’s far more complex world means that such success is no slam dunk.

Perhaps the most important question is how receptive the market will be. High definition television sets are expensive, especially those bought when they first became available. The logical questions: How will the existence of a universe of millions of HD sets – many of which, in television terms, are barely out of the box — impact demand for 3D sets? Will enough folks be willing to cough up a good chunk of dough so soon after doing the same for HD sets to enable the category to catch fire? Are people willing to make their HD receivers their second sets this soon?

The next question relates to early adopters. Until a few years ago, it was fairly easy for marketers to identify this group. Today, the category is a lot fuzzier. It can be argued that everyone is an early adopter. New devices and new categories – from smartphones to tablets to netbooks and beyond – are methodically introduced. 3D is a new and exciting thing, but only one in a continual series of new and exciting things. At some point, people’s minds and wallets will push back against the persistent flow of innovation.

For this reason, reference by marketers to traditional early adopter behavior should be taken with a grain of salt, if not downright discounted. The introduction of 3D will be different than earlier introductions simply because the world into which it is being delivered is far more segmented.

The final question also relates to the bigger picture. One of the other hot topics in the industry is TV Everywhere. In the broader telecommunications world, the explosion of mobility clearly suggests that people like to consume content outside their homes. In this landscape, it is prudent to pin too much hope on a technology that people must sit in their dens to enjoy?

I believe that high definition television will be a success. The experience simply is too compelling to strike out. However, savvy operators will understand that the introduction is fundamentally different than any in the industry’s past. I suspect that penetration will be very gradual and 3D only considered a success if seen in the context of a world in which subscribers have far more choice about what they do and where they do it.

Carl Weinschenk is editor at Broadband Gear Report. He can be reached at carlweinschenk@broadbandgear.net